tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 1538 Alaska Flight history → STL 17:37 PDX 19:47 12% 3% 0.9% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → PDX 12:38DL 2167 8h 17m 99% 92%
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 1h 33m Denver DEN 08:05 → PDX 09:47UA 1247 6h 37m 99% 91%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909 55m Denver DEN 07:45 → PDX 09:25WN 300 5h 50m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 11:18 → MSP 12:55DL 3188 3h 03m Minneapolis MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008 8h 17m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206 8h 58m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 30m Chicago ORD 09:00 → PDX 11:38UA 1994 7h 38m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → STL 06:10 → LAS 07:35WN 3934 1h 45m Las Vegas LAS 09:20 → PDX 11:40WN 4132 7h 30m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396 1h 10m Dallas DAL 07:55 → PDX 09:55WN 1377 6h 50m 98% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 19:23 → SFO 21:43UA 2482 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 22:52 → PDX 00:50 +1UA 2384 7h 27m 75% 61%
SouthwestDetails → STL 16:00 → DEN 17:20WN 3912 55m Denver DEN 18:15 → PDX 20:00WN 1669 6h 00m 68% 46%
SouthwestDetails → STL 19:45 → LAS 21:10WN 3935 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → PDX 00:35 +1WN 199 6h 50m 71% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON