Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3967 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 3967 STL 05:45 → PHX 06:55 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 4615 STL 19:20 → PHX 20:30 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 40% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3967 Southwest Flight history →	STL 05:45	PHX 06:55	3%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 4673 Southwest Flight history →	STL 07:20	PHX 08:35	5%	2%	0.5%	100%
AA 2574 American Flight history →	STL 08:01	PHX 09:17	13%	4%	0.7%	85%
AA 3179 American Flight history →	STL 14:46	PHX 16:00	20%	8%	0.7%	68%
WN 3968 Southwest Flight history →	STL 13:20	PHX 14:30	21%	5%	0.5%	55%
WN 4360 Southwest Flight history →	STL 21:45	PHX 23:00	30%	9%	0.6%	31%
WN 4615 Southwest Flight history →	STL 19:20	PHX 20:30	32%	8%	0.6%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON