tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 279 at 14:55, with a 19% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 279 Southwest Flight history → STL 14:55 PNS 16:40 19% 4% 0.4% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396 2h 50m Dallas DAL 09:35 → PNS 11:25WN 3796 6h 20m 98% 88%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 00m Chicago MDW 07:45 → PNS 10:00WN 4103 4h 20m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 4h 51m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03AA 858 3h 19m Charlotte CLT 11:22 → PNS 12:17AA 5349 · flown by PSA 7h 07m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:55 → ORD 08:23AA 1926 3h 34m Chicago ORD 11:57 → PNS 14:24AA 4023 · flown by Envoy 7h 29m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 08m Chicago ORD 10:38 → PNS 13:07UA 2672 7h 07m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 5h 52m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 3h 30m Houston IAH 14:20 → PNS 16:06UA 4869 · flown by CommuteAir 7h 31m 100% 83%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON