tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 297 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 297 Southwest Flight history → STL 09:55 RDU 12:45 8% 2% 0.6% 88%
WN 3810 Southwest Flight history → STL 19:55 RDU 22:50 32% 6% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → RDU 11:43DL 2052 4h 43m 99% 90%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 55m Chicago MDW 07:40 → RDU 10:35WN 852 3h 55m 95% 88%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 11:35 → RDU 12:45WN 4442 5h 55m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 10:21 → RDU 13:51DL 2521 6h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 1h 11m Detroit DTW 10:15 → RDU 11:57DL 2164 4h 27m 95% 87%
AmericanDetails → STL 06:43 → DCA 09:46AA 309 1h 38m Washington DCA 11:24 → RDU 12:44AA 4700 · flown by Republic 5h 01m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 18m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 01m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 4h 34m 96% 86%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → STL 13:27 → ORD 14:59AA 6352 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Chicago ORD 15:59 → RDU 19:23AA 4518 · flown by Republic 4h 56m 75% 62%
DeltaDetails → STL 12:35 → LGA 16:13DL 4922 · flown by Endeavor 58m New York LGA 17:11 → RDU 19:19DL 5101 · flown by Endeavor 5h 44m 74% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON