Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4940 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4940 Southwest Flight history →	STL 09:55	RSW 13:25	16%	4%	12.3%	88%
WN 4831 Southwest Flight history →	STL 20:00	RSW 23:30	26%	9%	9.1%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	6h 06m	97%	73%
United Details →	STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102	7h 44m	98%	72%
United Details →	STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet	1h 29m Houston	IAH 12:19 → RSW 15:52UA 1361	6h 17m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	STL 15:57 → MSP 17:37DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest	1h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 19:29 → RSW 23:52DL 2268	6h 55m	94%	69%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 27m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → RSW 17:06DL 402	7h 17m	97%	67%
Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	5h 11m	99%	67%
United Details →	STL 11:25 → ORD 13:03UA 4395 · flown by GoJet	3h 23m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618	8h 09m	95%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet	1h 00m Chicago	ORD 10:35 → RSW 14:44UA 1102	5h 44m	72%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON