tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Phoenix, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4283 Southwest Flight history → STL 08:10 SAN 09:50 16% 2% 0.6% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 7h 21m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396 1h 05m Dallas DAL 07:50 → SAN 08:50WN 192 5h 45m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 42m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 03m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909 1h 25m Denver DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699 6h 05m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 1h 11m Denver DEN 07:43 → SAN 09:05UA 2309 5h 55m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 08m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:30 → DTW 09:04DL 1626 3h 26m Detroit DTW 12:30 → SAN 14:09DL 2155 9h 39m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → STL 07:20 → ORD 09:00UA 4423 · flown by GoJet 4h 00m Chicago ORD 13:00 → SAN 15:25UA 2683 10h 05m 99% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 19:23 → SFO 21:43UA 2482 59m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 7h 08m 70% 51%
SouthwestDetails → STL 15:20 → AUS 17:20WN 329 50m Austin AUS 18:10 → SAN 19:05WN 391 5h 45m 67% 41%
SouthwestDetails → STL 19:45 → LAS 21:10WN 3935 1h 05m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871 5h 45m 71% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON