tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 654 at 12:20, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 654 Southwest Flight history → STL 12:20 SAV 15:15 18% 4% 0.6% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Savannah on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Savannah is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03AA 858 3h 07m Charlotte CLT 11:10 → SAV 12:35AA 5890 · flown by Piedmont 6h 25m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:07 → SAV 13:12DL 940 6h 12m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 13:32 → SAV 14:38DL 1067 6h 30m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:49 → MSP 10:30DL 5325 · flown by Endeavor 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 12:45 → SAV 16:23DL 2574 6h 34m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:03 → SAV 16:14DL 3014 5h 50m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:00 → HOU 07:05WN 3919 2h 20m Houston HOU 09:25 → SAV 12:40WN 2076 6h 40m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:01 → EWR 09:30UA 648 2h 29m Newark EWR 11:59 → SAV 14:14UA 570 7h 13m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 12m Chicago ORD 10:42 → SAV 14:16UA 2631 7h 16m 98% 85%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 16:53 → EWR 20:30UA 3564 · flown by Republic 59m Newark EWR 21:29 → SAV 23:52UA 2291 5h 59m 74% 58%
SouthwestDetails → STL 15:35 → MDW 16:40WN 556 50m Chicago MDW 17:30 → SAV 20:30WN 766 3h 55m 73% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON