Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AS 473 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22–26%.

Safest bet that day AS 473 STL 06:02 → SEA 08:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AS 647 STL 19:56 → SEA 22:24 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 473 Alaska Flight history →	STL 06:02	SEA 08:30	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
WN 3981 Southwest Flight history →	STL 11:40	SEA 13:55	22%	4%	0.5%	49%
AS 618 Alaska Flight history →	STL 14:50	SEA 17:17	22%	6%	0.7%	87%
AS 647 Alaska Flight history →	STL 19:56	SEA 22:24	26%	8%	0.7%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	6h 10m	96%	81%
United Details →	STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459	51m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SEA 13:21UA 1424	6h 15m	83%	68%
United Details →	STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380	58m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SEA 17:59UA 2013	6h 21m	84%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON