tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching San Francisco on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3982 Southwest Flight history → STL 08:15 SFO 10:20 18% 7% 0.5% 23%
UA 2482 United Flight history → STL 19:23 SFO 21:43 30% 11% 0.6% 26%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 3h 04m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074 8h 48m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → STL 11:18 → MSP 12:55DL 3188 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756 7h 54m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:43 → IAD 11:55UA 4506 · flown by GoJet 2h 56m Dulles IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 10h 55m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 2h 55m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 9h 14m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03AA 858 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 09:40 → SFO 12:19AA 2562 9h 09m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → STL 09:06 → DEN 10:30UA 2459 1h 55m Denver DEN 12:25 → SFO 14:09UA 1450 7h 03m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 1h 08m Denver DEN 07:40 → SFO 09:18UA 2391 6h 08m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:35 → IAH 10:50UA 4579 · flown by GoJet 2h 08m Houston IAH 12:58 → SFO 15:03UA 2756 8h 28m 100% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → STL 13:38 → DEN 15:00UA 1380 47m Denver DEN 15:47 → SFO 17:30UA 2633 5h 52m 74% 58%
UnitedDetails → STL 08:00 → ORD 09:35UA 4183 · flown by GoJet 50m Chicago ORD 10:25 → SFO 13:14UA 543 7h 14m 60% 48%
UnitedDetails → STL 19:05 → ORD 20:39UA 4165 · flown by GoJet 56m Chicago ORD 21:35 → SFO 00:32 +1UA 2106 7h 27m 65% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON