tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via Denver, leaving 05:35, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4362 Southwest Flight history → STL 08:15 SMF 10:15 8% 2% 0.4% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STL 05:10 → DEN 06:32UA 362 1h 28m Denver DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:35UA 2149 6h 25m 99% 92%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:35 → DEN 06:50WN 3909 1h 05m Denver DEN 07:55 → SMF 09:30WN 1738 5h 55m 98% 91%
SouthwestDetails → STL 06:10 → LAS 07:35WN 3934 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 09:35 → SMF 11:10WN 1122 7h 00m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → STL 07:20 → PHX 08:35WN 4673 1h 00m Phoenix PHX 09:35 → SMF 11:30WN 781 6h 10m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 1h 34m Chicago ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145 7h 51m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597 2h 28m Minneapolis MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701 7h 48m 99% 86%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396 55m Dallas DAL 07:40 → SMF 09:15WN 4218 6h 10m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → STL 08:00 → SLC 10:12DL 2363 1h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423 6h 16m 97% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON