tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4913 at 15:00, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4913 Southwest Flight history → STL 15:00 SRQ 18:20 21% 6% 17.3% 63%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104 4h 44m 99% 73%
SouthwestDetails → STL 05:40 → MDW 06:45WN 1008 1h 05m Chicago MDW 07:50 → SRQ 11:35WN 4653 4h 55m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438 6h 05m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109 6h 53m 99% 68%
DeltaDetails → STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115 7h 02m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → STL 05:10 → CLT 08:03AA 858 56m Charlotte CLT 08:59 → SRQ 10:50AA 2693 4h 40m 95% 67%
UnitedDetails → STL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 2805 3h 40m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 8h 12m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057 5h 54m 97% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45WN 694 1h 00m Nashville BNA 19:45 → SRQ 22:45WN 2700 4h 10m 72% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON