Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3988 at 17:25, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3988 Southwest Flight history →	STL 17:25	VPS 19:15	22%	6%	0.6%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STL 06:00 → ATL 08:38DL 1524	1h 37m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	4h 29m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	STL 06:21 → MSP 07:56DL 1597	2h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	6h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	STL 07:08 → ATL 09:45DL 1536	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092	5h 21m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	STL 09:24 → ATL 12:02DL 1571	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	4h 36m	98%	86%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:50 → BWI 08:55WN 3894	3h 05m Baltimore	BWI 12:00 → VPS 13:20WN 246	7h 30m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	STL 13:22 → ATL 16:07DL 566	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803	5h 20m	99%	85%
Southwest Details →	STL 05:05 → DAL 06:45WN 1396	3h 15m Dallas	DAL 10:00 → VPS 11:55WN 205	6h 50m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	STL 10:51 → ATL 13:25DL 1400	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083	5h 30m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45WN 694	55m Nashville	BNA 19:40 → VPS 21:10WN 2982	3h 35m	68%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON