Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 3213 STS 07:25 → BUR 08:59 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AS 3092 STS 14:17 → BUR 15:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 3213 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 07:25	BUR 08:59	14%	6%	2.8%	83%
WN 3991 Southwest Flight history →	STS 11:10	BUR 12:40	15%	4%	0.8%	95%
AS 3092 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 14:17	BUR 15:45	15%	10%	1.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON