Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2736 at 12:43, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2736 American Flight history →	STS 12:43	DFW 18:29	21%	9%	1.0%	60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Santa Rosa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 07:00 → PDX 08:47AS 3417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 58m Portland	PDX 10:45 → DFW 16:42AS 392	7h 42m	97%	81%
American Details →	STS 13:00 → PHX 15:09AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	2h 06m Phoenix	PHX 17:15 → DFW 21:50AA 3232	6h 50m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:52 → SEA 14:55AS 1322	3h 01m Seattle	SEA 17:56 → DFW 23:59AS 424	9h 07m	100%	69%
Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	1h 37m San Diego	SAN 09:52 → DFW 15:13AS 545	6h 47m	94%	67%
American Details →	STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	1h 58m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	6h 36m	93%	65%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 14:25 → DFW 19:42AS 380	6h 38m	92%	62%
Alaska Details →	STS 19:23 → SEA 21:30AS 3044 · flown by SkyWest	1h 33m Seattle	SEA 23:03 → DFW 05:02 +1AS 542	7h 39m	85%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON