Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3992 at 15:55, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3992 Southwest Flight history →	STS 15:55	LAS 17:40	28%	12%	0.7%	63%
AS 2459 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	STS 13:06	LAS 14:44	8%	2%	0.0%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 07:00 → PDX 08:47AS 3417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 58m Portland	PDX 10:45 → LAS 13:11AS 757	6h 11m	97%	79%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:05 → PDX 13:46AS 3009 · flown by SkyWest	1h 00m Portland	PDX 14:46 → LAS 17:06AS 778	5h 01m	88%	69%
Southwest Details →	STS 17:10 → SAN 18:50WN 3994	3h 50m San Diego	SAN 22:40 → LAS 00:15 +1WN 3510	7h 05m	100%	69%
Southwest Details →	STS 06:00 → SAN 07:40WN 4813	2h 05m San Diego	SAN 09:45 → LAS 11:10WN 2695	5h 10m	95%	68%
Southwest Details →	STS 11:10 → BUR 12:40WN 3991	3h 00m Burbank	BUR 15:40 → LAS 16:50WN 791	5h 40m	100%	66%
American Details →	STS 13:00 → PHX 15:09AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	2h 55m Phoenix	PHX 18:04 → LAS 19:15AA 1022	6h 15m	100%	61%
American Details →	STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	2h 13m Phoenix	PHX 20:36 → LAS 21:43AA 2106	5h 31m	93%	60%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	3h 23m San Diego	SAN 16:13 → LAS 17:39AS 2092 · flown by Horizon	6h 35m	99%	55%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	50m San Diego	SAN 09:05 → LAS 10:31AS 2281 · flown by Horizon	4h 05m	75%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON