Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AS 3086 at 16:35, with a 20% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 3086 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 16:35	ONT 18:03	20%	10%	1.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STS 13:00 → PHX 15:09AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	1h 55m Phoenix	PHX 17:04 → ONT 18:18AA 2639	5h 18m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:52 → SEA 14:55AS 1322	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 17:51 → ONT 20:32AS 592	7h 40m	100%	66%
American Details →	STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Phoenix	PHX 20:30 → ONT 21:43AA 1238	5h 31m	93%	61%
Southwest Details →	STS 15:55 → LAS 17:40WN 3992	1h 30m Las Vegas	LAS 19:10 → ONT 20:10WN 208	4h 15m	89%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON