Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3514 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	STS 13:00	PHX 15:09	23%	7%	1.1%	52%
AA 6459 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 16:12	PHX 18:23	23%	13%	1.2%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 07:00 → PDX 08:47AS 3417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m Portland	PDX 10:30 → PHX 13:20AS 716	6h 20m	97%	80%
Southwest Details →	STS 06:00 → SAN 07:40WN 4813	1h 35m San Diego	SAN 09:15 → PHX 10:40WN 681	4h 40m	94%	74%
Southwest Details →	STS 11:10 → BUR 12:40WN 3991	3h 15m Burbank	BUR 15:55 → PHX 17:25WN 819	6h 15m	100%	72%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:52 → SEA 14:55AS 1322	2h 00m Seattle	SEA 16:55 → PHX 19:53AS 744	7h 01m	97%	67%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:05 → PDX 13:46AS 3009 · flown by SkyWest	59m Portland	PDX 14:45 → PHX 17:29AS 731	5h 24m	87%	66%
Southwest Details →	STS 15:55 → LAS 17:40WN 3992	3h 45m Las Vegas	LAS 21:25 → PHX 22:45WN 1914	6h 50m	98%	61%
Alaska Details →	STS 11:04 → SAN 12:50AS 3047 · flown by SkyWest	3h 55m San Diego	SAN 16:45 → PHX 18:11AS 3061 · flown by SkyWest	7h 07m	100%	61%
Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m San Diego	SAN 10:52 → PHX 12:23AS 3023 · flown by SkyWest	5h 57m	96%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	STS 15:55 → LAS 17:40WN 3992	55m Las Vegas	LAS 18:35 → PHX 19:50WN 4461	3h 55m	71%	42%
Southwest Details →	STS 17:10 → SAN 18:50WN 3994	1h 00m San Diego	SAN 19:50 → PHX 21:15WN 3526	4h 05m	66%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON