Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 1322 Alaska Flight history →	STS 12:52	SEA 14:55	28%	6%	1.2%	76%
AS 3044 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 19:23	SEA 21:30	35%	11%	1.9%	76%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 07:00 → PDX 08:47AS 3417 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m Portland	PDX 12:03 → SEA 13:03AS 3078 · flown by SkyWest	6h 03m	99%	81%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:05 → PDX 13:46AS 3009 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Portland	PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:30AS 3408 · flown by SkyWest	4h 25m	96%	71%
Alaska Details →	STS 06:00 → LAX 07:44AS 3050 · flown by SkyWest	2h 16m Los Angeles	LAX 10:00 → SEA 12:48AS 798	6h 48m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	STS 08:30 → SNA 10:12AS 3287 · flown by SkyWest	1h 53m Santa Ana	SNA 12:05 → SEA 14:54AS 548	6h 24m	91%	68%
Alaska Details →	STS 16:35 → ONT 18:03AS 3086 · flown by SkyWest	3h 17m Ontario	ONT 21:20 → SEA 23:59AS 594	7h 24m	100%	67%
Alaska Details →	STS 06:26 → SAN 08:15AS 3315 · flown by SkyWest	1h 54m San Diego	SAN 10:09 → SEA 13:13AS 1477	6h 47m	95%	63%
Alaska Details →	STS 07:25 → BUR 08:59AS 3213 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Burbank	BUR 10:10 → SEA 12:52AS 720	5h 27m	87%	62%
Alaska Details →	STS 14:17 → BUR 15:45AS 3092 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Burbank	BUR 18:39 → SEA 21:20AS 703	7h 03m	100%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	STS 19:03 → PDX 20:36AS 2331 · flown by Horizon	54m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	3h 24m	50%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON