Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3231 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 16:55	SNA 18:37	22%	8%	1.3%	90%worse than usual
AS 3287 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	STS 08:30	SNA 10:12	23%	10%	1.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	STS 07:00 → PDX 08:47AS 3417 · flown by SkyWest	1h 51m Portland	PDX 10:38 → SNA 13:15AS 588	6h 15m	97%	84%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:52 → SEA 14:55AS 1322	2h 34m Seattle	SEA 17:29 → SNA 20:17AS 472	7h 25m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	STS 12:05 → PDX 13:46AS 3009 · flown by SkyWest	1h 02m Portland	PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264	5h 14m	88%	74%
American Details →	STS 13:00 → PHX 15:09AA 3514 · flown by Envoy	2h 12m Phoenix	PHX 17:21 → SNA 18:40AA 2685	5h 40m	98%	71%
Southwest Details →	STS 15:55 → LAS 17:40WN 3992	3h 35m Las Vegas	LAS 21:15 → SNA 22:25WN 1590	6h 30m	98%	70%
American Details →	STS 16:12 → PHX 18:23AA 6459 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Phoenix	PHX 21:07 → SNA 22:26AA 2637	6h 14m	94%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	STS 12:43 → DFW 18:29AA 2736	46m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:15 → SNA 20:22AA 806	7h 39m	73%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON