Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1883 Delta Flight history →	STT 15:33	ATL 19:30	16%	4%	0.7%	82%
DL 1823 Delta Flight history →	STT 13:21	ATL 17:14	16%	3%	0.7%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Atlanta on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 22:28 → ATL 00:30 +1UA 1635	7h 45m	94%	80%
American Details →	STT 16:51 → CLT 20:59AA 1965	1h 37m Charlotte	CLT 22:36 → ATL 23:58AA 5498 · flown by PSA	7h 07m	91%	71%
American Details →	STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431	57m Charlotte	CLT 16:46 → ATL 18:14AA 5040 · flown by PSA	6h 31m	89%	65%
American Details →	STT 14:28 → DFW 19:10AA 2743	2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → ATL 00:19 +1AA 2749	9h 51m	95%	65%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	2h 02m Miami	MIA 21:56 → ATL 23:59AA 659	7h 09m	96%	60%
American Details →	STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744	3h 14m Miami	MIA 20:04 → ATL 22:09AA 1045	8h 20m	97%	56%
Southwest Details →	STT 14:45 → MCO 17:50WN 3995	1h 20m Orlando	MCO 19:10 → ATL 20:55WN 2529	6h 10m	85%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON