Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:33, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	9h 47m	97%	81%
United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 22:10 → BOS 23:59UA 755	7h 14m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:40 → BOS 22:25DL 300	9h 04m	96%	76%
American Details →	STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 18:34 → BOS 20:59AA 2595	9h 16m	100%	75%
American Details →	STT 11:39 → JFK 15:59AA 2741	1h 31m New York	JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:06AA 4346 · flown by Republic	7h 27m	95%	73%
American Details →	STT 16:51 → CLT 20:59AA 1965	1h 27m Charlotte	CLT 22:26 → BOS 00:37 +1AA 1843	7h 46m	91%	71%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	1h 51m Miami	MIA 21:45 → BOS 00:59 +1AA 1054	8h 09m	93%	64%
United Details →	STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208	50m Houston	IAH 18:15 → BOS 23:19UA 521	9h 57m	80%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	STT 14:49 → SJU 15:30B6 808	50m San Juan	SJU 16:20 → BOS 20:27B6 808	5h 38m	64%	40%
JetBlue Details →	STT 15:59 → SJU 16:41B6 435	55m San Juan	SJU 17:36 → BOS 21:43B6 762	5h 44m	64%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON