tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2431 American Flight history → STT 11:43 CLT 15:49 11% 4% 0.7% 93%
AA 1965 American Flight history → STT 16:51 CLT 20:59 14% 5% 0.8% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 11m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 25m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823 1h 41m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → CLT 20:14DL 720 6h 53m 93% 76%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:39 → JFK 15:59AA 2741 1h 01m New York JFK 17:00 → CLT 19:30AA 3120 7h 51m 91% 72%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738 2h 31m Miami MIA 22:25 → CLT 00:35 +1AA 1212 7h 45m 96% 69%
AmericanDetails → STT 14:28 → DFW 19:10AA 2743 2h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → CLT 00:59 +1AA 2409 10h 31m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744 2h 20m Miami MIA 19:10 → CLT 21:26AA 3131 7h 37m 95% 66%
UnitedDetails → STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445 1h 26m Dulles IAD 22:24 → CLT 23:59UA 6234 · flown by Mesa 7h 14m 94% 61%
UnitedDetails → STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208 47m Houston IAH 18:12 → CLT 21:59UA 2864 8h 37m 77% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON