tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:21, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2743 American Flight history → STT 14:28 DFW 19:10 21% 7% 0.9% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 22:54 → DFW 00:13 +1DL 818 9h 40m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161 9h 50m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:39 → JFK 15:59AA 2741 1h 26m New York JFK 17:25 → DFW 20:30AA 606 9h 51m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208 2h 34m Houston IAH 19:59 → DFW 21:25UA 1949 9h 03m 99% 73%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:51 → CLT 20:59AA 1965 1h 37m Charlotte CLT 22:36 → DFW 00:29 +1AA 1271 8h 38m 91% 71%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431 2h 11m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → DFW 20:00AA 2409 9h 17m 94% 70%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738 2h 55m Miami MIA 22:49 → DFW 00:59 +1AA 2343 9h 09m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744 2h 40m Miami MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104 8h 56m 97% 63%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON