tailodds FORECAST
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Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 13:22, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 11h 15m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 10m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 9h 25m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445 1h 31m Dulles IAD 22:29 → EWR 23:59UA 1997 7h 14m 94% 69%
DeltaDetails → STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → EWR 22:29DL 2527 9h 08m 96% 68%
JetBlueDetails → STT 15:59 → SJU 16:41B6 435 3h 23m San Juan SJU 20:04 → EWR 00:04 +1B6 1990 8h 05m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431 2h 32m Charlotte CLT 18:21 → EWR 20:30AA 1071 8h 47m 97% 61%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738 2h 06m Miami MIA 22:00 → EWR 00:59 +1AA 2008 8h 09m 96% 61%
JetBlueDetails → STT 14:49 → SJU 15:30B6 808 2h 22m San Juan SJU 17:52 → EWR 21:55B6 1390 7h 06m 91% 59%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON