Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 1445 at 16:45, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1445 United Flight history →	STT 16:45	IAD 20:58	13%	5%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208	2h 55m Houston	IAH 20:20 → IAD 00:31 +1UA 2775	11h 09m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549	9h 08m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 19:15 → IAD 21:03DL 1309	7h 42m	94%	73%
American Details →	STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 18:10 → IAD 19:40AA 1450	7h 57m	94%	71%
American Details →	STT 16:51 → CLT 20:59AA 1965	1h 46m Charlotte	CLT 22:45 → IAD 00:10 +1AA 1242	7h 19m	91%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON