Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, UA 2208 at 13:22, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2208 United Flight history →	STT 13:22	IAH 17:25	13%	4%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Charlotte Amalie). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 22m Dulles	IAD 22:20 → IAH 00:45 +1UA 1986	9h 00m	93%	81%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	9h 24m	98%	78%
American Details →	STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431	2h 52m Charlotte	CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935	9h 50m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	9h 03m	97%	76%
American Details →	STT 14:28 → DFW 19:10AA 2743	3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:48 → IAH 23:58AA 1914	10h 30m	97%	68%
American Details →	STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744	2h 52m Miami	MIA 19:42 → IAH 21:33AA 2541	8h 44m	97%	68%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	2h 21m Miami	MIA 22:15 → IAH 23:59AA 2230	8h 09m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON