Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2741 American Flight history →	STT 11:39	JFK 15:59	10%	4%	0.8%	62%
DL 1768 Delta Flight history →	STT 16:31	JFK 20:48	16%	5%	0.8%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → JFK 23:09DL 2101	9h 48m	98%	77%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	1h 57m Miami	MIA 21:51 → JFK 00:59 +1AA 944	8h 09m	96%	69%
American Details →	STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 18:02 → JFK 20:06AA 657	8h 23m	94%	67%
JetBlue Details →	STT 14:49 → SJU 15:30B6 808	3h 00m San Juan	SJU 18:30 → JFK 22:28B6 304	7h 39m	94%	65%
American Details →	STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744	3h 00m Miami	MIA 19:50 → JFK 23:01AA 1357	9h 12m	97%	64%
JetBlue Details →	STT 15:59 → SJU 16:41B6 435	3h 26m San Juan	SJU 20:07 → JFK 00:04 +1B6 504	8h 05m	97%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON