tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 3995 at 14:45, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3995 Southwest Flight history → STT 14:45 MCO 17:50 24% 9% 13.5% 70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445 1h 35m Dulles IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689 8h 16m 95% 67%
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 23:29 → MCO 01:05 +1DL 1562 9h 32m 99% 64%
UnitedDetails → STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208 2h 25m Houston IAH 19:50 → MCO 23:22UA 2323 10h 00m 99% 63%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431 3h 16m Charlotte CLT 19:05 → MCO 21:00AA 1783 9h 17m 100% 58%
DeltaDetails → STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 20:15 → MCO 21:53DL 1735 8h 32m 97% 56%
JetBlueDetails → STT 14:49 → SJU 15:30B6 808 3h 24m San Juan SJU 18:54 → MCO 22:01B6 228 7h 12m 94% 55%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:51 → CLT 20:59AA 1965 1h 30m Charlotte CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879 7h 26m 91% 55%
JetBlueDetails → STT 15:59 → SJU 16:41B6 435 3h 49m San Juan SJU 20:30 → MCO 23:32B6 1334 7h 33m 98% 52%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823 46m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035 6h 27m 75% 47%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738 56m Miami MIA 20:50 → MCO 22:08AA 1700 5h 18m 73% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON