tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2744 American Flight history → STT 13:49 MIA 16:50 21% 9% 1.3% 89%
AA 2738 American Flight history → STT 16:50 MIA 19:54 27% 9% 2.0% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589 9h 22m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:39 → JFK 15:59AA 2741 2h 51m New York JFK 18:50 → MIA 22:22AA 1174 10h 43m 97% 69%
DeltaDetails → STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588 8h 38m 96% 66%
UnitedDetails → STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208 1h 36m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 9h 18m 96% 65%
AmericanDetails → STT 16:51 → CLT 20:59AA 1965 1h 40m Charlotte CLT 22:39 → MIA 00:46 +1AA 1596 7h 55m 91% 63%
AmericanDetails → STT 11:43 → CLT 15:49AA 2431 2h 11m Charlotte CLT 18:00 → MIA 20:21AA 488 8h 38m 94% 61%
AmericanDetails → STT 14:28 → DFW 19:10AA 2743 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:05 → MIA 23:56AA 2823 9h 28m 76% 50%
SouthwestDetails → STT 14:45 → MCO 17:50WN 3995 3h 00m Orlando MCO 20:50 → MIA 22:10WN 1516 7h 25m 99% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON