Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 6008 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 13:57	LAX 15:31	10%	8%	0.7%	93%
UA 6053 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SUN 08:00	LAX 09:34	10%	8%	0.7%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 1 h behind Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SUN 07:20 → SLC 08:27DL 4037 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	6h 07m	99%	85%
United Details →	SUN 07:00 → DEN 08:58UA 5712 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 11:45 → LAX 13:17UA 1013	7h 17m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:40 → LAX 16:36DL 841	4h 26m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon	1h 24m Seattle	SEA 12:38 → LAX 15:25AS 502	6h 05m	96%	77%
United Details →	SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest	1h 20m Denver	DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240	6h 02m	90%	73%
United Details →	SUN 07:40 → SFO 08:59UA 5423 · flown by SkyWest	3h 16m San Francisco	SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506	7h 15m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	SUN 15:15 → SLC 16:24DL 3690 · flown by SkyWest	46m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → LAX 18:07DL 1161	3h 52m	87%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON