tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 15:15, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4788 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SUN 08:15 ORD 12:48 17% 8% 2.2% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Hailey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SUN 13:57 → LAX 15:31UA 6008 · flown by SkyWest 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 18:58 → ORD 01:15 +1UA 1754 10h 18m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → SUN 07:00 → DEN 08:58UA 5712 · flown by SkyWest 2h 17m Denver DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865 6h 55m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → SUN 14:38 → DEN 16:45UA 5268 · flown by SkyWest 2h 55m Denver DEN 19:40 → ORD 23:19UA 2085 7h 41m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SUN 08:00 → LAX 09:34UA 6053 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 10:45 → ORD 17:04UA 2113 8h 04m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → SUN 13:10 → SLC 14:21DL 4019 · flown by SkyWest 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 17:21 → ORD 21:29DL 2413 7h 19m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → SUN 07:40 → SFO 08:59UA 5423 · flown by SkyWest 3h 01m San Francisco SFO 12:00 → ORD 18:35UA 2317 9h 55m 98% 66%
AlaskaDetails → SUN 10:20 → SEA 11:14AS 2325 · flown by Horizon 1h 56m Seattle SEA 13:10 → ORD 19:21AS 410 8h 01m 100% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON