Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4056 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 4056 SYR 06:03 → DCA 07:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 5418 SYR 20:28 → DCA 22:00 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4056 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SYR 06:03	DCA 07:34	8%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 5589 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SYR 13:18	DCA 14:52	25%	15%	1.3%	47%
AA 5418 American flown by PSA Flight history →	SYR 20:28	DCA 22:00	28%	18%	2.0%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON