tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 533 at 07:16, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 533 American Flight history → SYR 07:16 DFW 09:50 9% 3% 0.9% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Syracuse). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SYR 06:03 → DCA 07:34AA 4056 · flown by Envoy 2h 26m Washington DCA 10:00 → DFW 12:21AA 1618 7h 18m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → SYR 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 1108 1h 29m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → SYR 06:15 → ORD 07:29UA 1008 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:45 → DFW 11:29UA 528 6h 14m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → SYR 07:30 → MSP 09:07DL 2834 56m Minneapolis MSP 10:03 → DFW 12:29DL 2970 5h 59m 93% 83%
UnitedDetails → SYR 06:00 → IAD 07:28UA 4860 · flown by CommuteAir 1h 02m Dulles IAD 08:30 → DFW 10:53UA 2471 5h 53m 90% 83%
AmericanDetails → SYR 10:36 → BOS 11:55AA 4635 · flown by Republic 2h 32m Boston BOS 14:27 → DFW 17:50AA 820 8h 14m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → SYR 16:15 → DEN 18:05UA 453 2h 48m Denver DEN 20:53 → DFW 23:59UA 2239 8h 44m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SYR 09:12 → DTW 10:46DL 4123 · flown by SkyWest 1h 59m Detroit DTW 12:45 → DFW 14:32DL 1041 6h 20m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SYR 10:30 → IAD 11:55UA 4840 · flown by CommuteAir 46m Dulles IAD 12:41 → DFW 15:05UA 1564 5h 35m 73% 63%
UnitedDetails → SYR 16:15 → DEN 18:05UA 453 48m Denver DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565 6h 44m 74% 59%
AmericanDetails → SYR 10:47 → PHL 12:04AA 5982 · flown by Piedmont 48m Philadelphia PHL 12:52 → DFW 15:31AA 415 5h 44m 54% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON