Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 4134 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day AA 4134 SYR 07:30 → ORD 08:49 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 6398 SYR 20:19 → ORD 21:49 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4134 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SYR 07:30	ORD 08:49	8%	3%	1.2%	85%
UA 1008 United Flight history →	SYR 06:15	ORD 07:29	9%	4%	1.1%	85%
AA 4044 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SYR 10:42	ORD 11:56	9%	3%	1.2%	92%
UA 1067 United Flight history →	SYR 17:49	ORD 19:05	15%	6%	1.0%	71%
AA 3819 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SYR 16:56	ORD 18:14	19%	6%	1.6%	74%
AA 6398 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SYR 20:19	ORD 21:49	21%	10%	2.0%	51%
UA 4600 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	SYR 11:56	ORD 13:15	22%	10%	3.4%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON