Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2330 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2330 TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3053 TPA 16:46 → ATL 18:37 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2330 Delta Flight history →	TPA 05:15	ATL 06:45	4%	2%	11.7%	96%
DL 1726 Delta Flight history →	TPA 06:15	ATL 07:50	6%	2%	11.7%	88%
DL 744 Delta Flight history →	TPA 08:45	ATL 10:15	10%	3%	15.5%	90%
DL 1486 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	ATL 09:07	10%	3%	12.8%	91%
DL 1227 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:14	ATL 12:52	11%	3%	17.2%	86%
WN 4987 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:20	ATL 10:55	11%	3%	17.1%	88%
DL 2605 Delta Flight history →	TPA 10:00	ATL 11:35	12%	3%	17.2%	90%
F9 1853 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 07:00	ATL 09:01	15%	5%	15.2%	74%
DL 1587 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:34	ATL 14:10	19%	4%	17.2%	80%
DL 1099 Delta Flight history →	TPA 13:44	ATL 15:23	19%	4%	17.2%	82%
DL 1425 Delta Flight history →	TPA 19:04	ATL 21:04	21%	6%	17.3%	79%
DL 1525 Delta Flight history →	TPA 15:18	ATL 16:54	21%	6%	17.2%	72%
DL 1594 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:02	ATL 21:49	22%	7%	11.8%	71%
DL 1167 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:32	ATL 18:23	25%	6%	17.2%	72%
DL 759 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:03	ATL 19:48	25%	6%	17.2%	70%
F9 4435 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 14:25	ATL 16:16	26%	14%	17.4%	63%
WN 3997 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 16:00	ATL 17:35	30%	9%	17.2%	57%
F9 3053 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 16:46	ATL 18:37	32%	15%	17.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON