Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3998 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 3998 TPA 05:45 → AUS 07:10 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 4001 TPA 18:55 → AUS 20:25 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 28% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3998 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:45	AUS 07:10	4%	1%	14.9%	95%
WN 3999 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:00	AUS 11:30	16%	3%	17.1%	80%
DL 487 Delta Flight history →	TPA 12:44	AUS 14:26	18%	4%	17.2%	83%
DL 3734 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	TPA 19:51	AUS 21:58	19%	8%	17.3%	88%
WN 4001 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 18:55	AUS 20:25	34%	11%	17.1%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON