tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4428 at 09:10, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4428 Southwest Flight history → TPA 09:10 BDL 12:00 13% 3% 17.1% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 1h 25m Atlanta ATL 08:10 → BDL 10:30DL 2951 5h 15m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 10:22 → BDL 12:45DL 1082 6h 30m 98% 77%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45WN 2701 55m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → BDL 12:00WN 427 4h 40m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → IAD 11:22UA 2331 1h 18m Dulles IAD 12:40 → BDL 14:06UA 632 5h 06m 96% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 3h 27m Detroit DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814 7h 48m 98% 72%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804 1h 03m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 6h 34m 93% 70%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538 2h 44m Charlotte CLT 11:51 → BDL 13:50AA 1448 6h 35m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 13:56 → BDL 16:16DL 2739 7h 31m 98% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON