Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 432 at 13:30, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 432 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 13:30	BHM 14:00	24%	6%	17.0%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330	1h 45m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → BHM 08:25DL 3100	4h 10m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 55m	99%	80%
American Details →	TPA 05:45 → DFW 07:36AA 2268	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:50 → BHM 11:46AA 3469 · flown by Envoy	7h 01m	97%	74%
Southwest Details →	TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002	2h 25m Nashville	BNA 10:45 → BHM 11:40WN 434	5h 15m	99%	74%
Southwest Details →	TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35WN 1406	2h 15m Dallas	DAL 09:50 → BHM 11:30WN 1271	6h 25m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744	3h 16m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	5h 39m	97%	73%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 15:14 → BHM 15:10DL 3163	6h 10m	100%	70%
American Details →	TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 11:30 → BHM 12:09AA 4932 · flown by SkyWest	5h 54m	97%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 13:54 → MIA 15:03AA 2831	47m Miami	MIA 15:50 → BHM 16:55AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	4h 01m	59%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON