Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4002 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 4002 TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest WN 4005 TPA 17:20 → BNA 18:15 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4002 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:25	BNA 08:20	5%	1%	15.4%	82%
WN 4003 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:05	BNA 11:00	11%	3%	17.1%	82%
AA 3825 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TPA 11:55	BNA 12:56	13%	4%	17.3%	80%
AA 3823 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	TPA 16:55	BNA 17:59	21%	7%	17.3%	66%
WN 4004 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 14:05	BNA 15:00	21%	6%	17.1%	79%
WN 4006 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:45	BNA 21:45	24%	9%	12.8%	51%
WN 4005 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 17:20	BNA 18:15	27%	9%	17.1%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON