Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2406 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2406 TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 592 TPA 16:58 → BOS 20:07 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2406 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:00	BOS 10:09	5%	3%	15.5%	95%
B6 1192 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 06:30	BOS 09:33	7%	3%	15.1%	89%
DL 2706 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:23	BOS 14:35	14%	6%	17.2%	78%
B6 892 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 09:49	BOS 12:51	17%	6%	17.3%	81%
B6 392 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 12:18	BOS 15:27	22%	10%	17.3%	69%
DL 1439 Delta Flight history →	TPA 20:35	BOS 23:47	23%	11%	11.8%	72%
B6 592 JetBlue Flight history →	TPA 16:58	BOS 20:07	34%	17%	17.3%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON