tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 484 at 08:55, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 484 Southwest Flight history → TPA 08:55 BUF 11:35 9% 3% 15.5% 88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384 5h 56m 98% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:20 → MDW 07:00WN 4031 55m Chicago MDW 07:55 → BUF 10:25WN 758 5h 05m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804 3h 55m Chicago ORD 13:55 → BUF 16:41UA 2226 8h 51m 100% 75%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45WN 2701 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:50 → BUF 12:05WN 762 4h 45m 95% 74%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 08:00 → MDW 09:40WN 2869 3h 20m Chicago MDW 13:00 → BUF 15:30WN 1655 7h 30m 100% 71%
AmericanDetails → TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07AA 2538 1h 59m Charlotte CLT 11:06 → BUF 12:51AA 1616 5h 36m 97% 71%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:45 → ATL 10:15DL 744 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 14:00 → BUF 16:03DL 2266 7h 18m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → TPA 08:30 → DTW 11:08DL 808 2h 52m Detroit DTW 14:00 → BUF 15:13DL 3642 · flown by SkyWest 6h 43m 98% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 12:11 → LGA 15:00AA 2805 50m New York LGA 15:50 → BUF 17:28AA 4378 · flown by Republic 5h 17m 73% 49%
DeltaDetails → TPA 19:04 → ATL 21:04DL 1425 48m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 4h 55m 69% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON