Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2701 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 2701 TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 4010 TPA 22:30 → BWI 00:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2701 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:20	BWI 09:45	5%	1%	15.5%	96%
WN 4009 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:05	BWI 11:25	9%	3%	17.2%	88%
WN 1016 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 10:40	BWI 13:00	11%	3%	17.2%	88%
F9 4092 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 08:15	BWI 10:45	13%	5%	16.8%	91%
WN 941 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 15:20	BWI 17:45	22%	8%	17.2%	60%
WN 928 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 18:45	BWI 21:15	25%	11%	17.2%	41%
WN 4010 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 22:30	BWI 00:55	26%	10%	12.9%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON