Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 2684 TPA 10:07 → CLE 12:44 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest F9 2184 TPA 21:52 → CLE 00:27 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 2684 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 10:07	CLE 12:44	18%	6%	17.4%	86%
F9 1492 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 17:43	CLE 20:22	26%	12%	17.4%	73%
F9 2184 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 21:52	CLE 00:27	26%	13%	13.0%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON