Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2538 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 2538 TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2784 TPA 16:51 → CLT 18:49 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 07:15	CLT 09:07	9%	3%	15.0%	94%
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:36	CLT 10:25	13%	4%	16.7%	91%
AA 2828 American Flight history →	TPA 11:56	CLT 13:53	13%	5%	17.2%	89%
AA 3320 American Flight history →	TPA 10:12	CLT 12:00	16%	5%	17.2%	87%
AA 2832 American Flight history →	TPA 15:28	CLT 17:26	19%	9%	17.2%	65%
AA 2836 American Flight history →	TPA 13:54	CLT 15:51	20%	8%	17.2%	59%
AA 2784 American Flight history →	TPA 16:51	CLT 18:49	20%	8%	17.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON