tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4754 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4754 Southwest Flight history → TPA 07:05 CMH 09:20 4% 1% 15.4% 98%
WN 4755 Southwest Flight history → TPA 22:15 CMH 00:35 30% 11% 11.7% 66%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 05:50 → STL 07:10WN 4048 2h 45m St Louis STL 09:55 → CMH 12:15WN 3902 6h 25m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → CMH 11:48DL 1522 6h 33m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → TPA 07:50 → ORD 10:00UA 2804 2h 48m Chicago ORD 12:48 → CMH 15:28UA 3554 · flown by Republic 7h 38m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:30 → ATL 09:07DL 1486 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750 6h 08m 99% 78%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002 1h 45m Nashville BNA 10:05 → CMH 12:25WN 4427 5h 00m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:01 → PHL 08:39AA 1806 1h 56m Philadelphia PHL 10:35 → CMH 12:21AA 2905 6h 20m 97% 75%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:00 → MIA 07:10AA 3215 3h 22m Miami MIA 10:32 → CMH 13:25AA 4163 · flown by Envoy 7h 25m 100% 74%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 07:20 → BWI 09:45WN 2701 1h 00m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → CMH 12:10WN 4524 4h 50m 95% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 19:32 → MIA 20:37AA 3555 · flown by Envoy 1h 08m Miami MIA 21:45 → CMH 00:37 +1AA 3550 · flown by Envoy 5h 05m 69% 44%
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45AA 2987 1h 05m Miami MIA 19:50 → CMH 22:39AA 3660 · flown by Envoy 5h 06m 61% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON