tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
F9 1303 Frontier Flight history → TPA 07:45 CVG 10:05 11% 6% 15.6% 85%
DL 1679 Delta Flight history → TPA 18:25 CVG 20:42 20% 9% 17.3% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → TPA 05:15 → ATL 06:45DL 2330 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → CVG 11:25DL 3160 6h 10m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → TPA 06:15 → ATL 07:50DL 1726 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 11:11 → CVG 12:34DL 3149 6h 19m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:44 → ORD 08:49AA 354 3h 05m Chicago ORD 11:54 → CVG 14:25AA 4720 · flown by Republic 7h 41m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → TPA 06:00 → MIA 07:10AA 3215 1h 31m Miami MIA 08:41 → CVG 11:34AA 4121 · flown by Envoy 5h 34m 97% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 07:00 → BOS 10:09DL 2406 1h 31m Boston BOS 11:40 → CVG 14:07DL 5598 · flown by Republic 7h 07m 99% 75%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 07:25 → BNA 08:20WN 4002 1h 45m Nashville BNA 10:05 → CVG 12:15WN 483 4h 50m 99% 74%
SouthwestDetails → TPA 08:00 → MDW 09:40WN 2869 3h 20m Chicago MDW 13:00 → CVG 15:10WN 1247 7h 10m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → TPA 09:00 → EWR 11:51UA 2204 1h 30m Newark EWR 13:21 → CVG 15:33UA 3473 · flown by Republic 6h 33m 96% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → TPA 17:33 → MIA 18:45AA 2987 1h 00m Miami MIA 19:45 → CVG 22:35AA 4115 · flown by Envoy 5h 02m 61% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON