Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 1406 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 1406 TPA 06:05 → DAL 07:35 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest WN 4015 TPA 21:30 → DAL 22:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 45% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1406 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 06:05	DAL 07:35	5%	1%	14.9%	92%
WN 1327 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:00	DAL 10:30	13%	3%	17.2%	86%
WN 4014 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 16:20	DAL 17:55	32%	8%	17.1%	42%
WN 4015 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 21:30	DAL 22:55	36%	12%	12.8%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON