Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3305 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 3305 TPA 08:05 → DCA 10:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 324 TPA 15:55 → DCA 18:20 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3305 American Flight history →	TPA 08:05	DCA 10:26	8%	3%	17.3%	93%
WN 4016 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 09:45	DCA 12:05	14%	5%	17.1%	84%
AA 2775 American Flight history →	TPA 10:38	DCA 12:59	15%	6%	17.3%	75%
AA 2837 American Flight history →	TPA 13:32	DCA 15:58	18%	6%	17.3%	76%
AA 2773 American Flight history →	TPA 18:59	DCA 21:25	23%	11%	17.3%	55%
WN 324 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 15:55	DCA 18:20	28%	10%	17.2%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON