Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4018 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day WN 4018 TPA 05:00 → DEN 06:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest WN 4020 TPA 17:35 → DEN 19:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4018 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 05:00	DEN 06:40	4%	1%	14.8%	93%
WN 4019 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 07:35	DEN 09:25	7%	2%	15.3%	93%
UA 2167 United Flight history →	TPA 08:00	DEN 10:02	7%	3%	15.4%	92%
UA 645 United Flight history →	TPA 12:45	DEN 14:47	11%	4%	17.1%	92%
F9 1113 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 12:39	DEN 14:44	19%	7%	17.4%	85%
UA 1773 United Flight history →	TPA 16:20	DEN 18:20	22%	7%	17.1%	67%
F9 2745 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 20:20	DEN 22:29	26%	11%	13.0%	75%
WN 4620 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 20:45	DEN 22:45	27%	8%	11.1%	58%
WN 4020 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 17:35	DEN 19:35	32%	9%	17.1%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	TPA 05:40 → MCI 07:25WN 4963	1h 00m Kansas City	MCI 08:25 → DEN 09:10WN 3169	5h 30m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON