Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2268 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2268 TPA 05:45 → DFW 07:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2813 TPA 17:56 → DFW 19:50 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 38% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2268 American Flight history →	TPA 05:45	DFW 07:36	6%	2%	15.1%	90%
AA 1768 American Flight history →	TPA 07:00	DFW 08:50	9%	3%	15.6%	81%
AA 1189 American Flight history →	TPA 09:11	DFW 10:57	12%	4%	17.3%	89%
AA 2814 American Flight history →	TPA 11:33	DFW 13:17	14%	5%	17.3%	79%
F9 1333 Frontier Flight history →	TPA 10:27	DFW 12:23	15%	6%	17.5%	84%
AA 3245 American Flight history →	TPA 13:57	DFW 15:46	17%	7%	17.3%	57%
AA 2767 American Flight history →	TPA 16:30	DFW 18:24	22%	10%	17.3%	32%
AA 3272 American Flight history →	TPA 19:50	DFW 21:37	23%	10%	17.4%	24%
AA 2813 American Flight history →	TPA 17:56	DFW 19:50	24%	11%	17.3%	38%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON